서울대학교

[정치외교학부 10-10 사업단]

SEOUL POLITICAL SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS SERIES

Second-Order Beliefs and the Psychology of Violent Transgression in International Politics

REID B. C. PAULY (Dean’s Assistant Professor, Watson Institute for International & Public Affairs, Brown University)

일시: 2025년 4월 15일 15:30
장소: 223동 우석경제관 504호
* 행사는 모두 영어로 진행됩니다.
* 사전 신청없이 참석 가능합니다.

요약: International politics is marked by violent transgressions and their specter: invasions, harm to civilians, spectacular acts of terrorism, or the use of proscribed weapons. Institutions, norms, and signals are designed to draw bright lines that clarify and deter these transgressions. We introduce a psychological theory rooted in second-order beliefs--what we think others think--to explain that violent transgressions occur when would-be transgressors predict that enforcement audiences will not impose significant costs on them. To understand the likelihood of violent transgressions, we therefore need to (1) identify the relevant enforcement audiences; (2) evaluate would-be transgressors’ second-order beliefs regarding the enforcement audience; (3) assess the accuracy of these second-order beliefs; and (4) evaluate whether changes in second-order beliefs also change the likelihood of transgressions. We apply the theory to the case of nuclear weapons using a survey experiment with an elite sample of U.S. military officers (N=383), a nationally representative public sample of U.S. adults (N=1,000), as well as a sample of historical wargames conducted with U.S. policymakers. We find that there is a mostly consistent constellation of enforcement audiences in the United States (military leaders, the public, diplomats, and Congressional leaders) across both elites and the public that influence levels of support for nuclear weapons use. We also find that participants tend to systematically overestimate these audiences’ enthusiasm for nuclear weapons use, and that updating second-order beliefs meaningfully changes levels of support.

문의처: 정치외교학부 10-10 사업조교 (lveronica93@snu.ac.kr)